We have now completed 2/3 of our meteorological summer, and the obvious headline for this season has been "heat, heat, and more heat." So, besides the dry conditions being forecasted for the month of August, how will this effect the fall/winter of 2012-2013? Based on the latest trends and the Pacific waters starting to show signs of warming temperatures, we are heading for a weak El Niño season. During the fall/winter seasons of an El Niño year, warmer temperatures are typically seen across much of the Northern Plains, however, precipitation is usually at or above average values. Much of the East Coast sees snowier conditions, while the southern U.S. remains wet and cooler than normal.
For the Great Lakes region, we are looking at an average snowfall year. FYI, Chicago's average is 38.6".
Is this forecast set in stone? No, but based on historical data from the past 100 years when El Niño first began, this is how the setup pans out 9 out of 10 times. Numbers don't lie, and history clearly shows this support.
Eric Szos
Chief Meteorologist
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