The Chicagoland area hit a record of 283 consecutive days of no snowfall. Total snowfall for the Chicagoland area is still at zero where only a slight trace of snow has been recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Airport. Looking at the December snowfall rankings (1958-Present) for Chicago, this December ranks as the least amount of snowfall for the Chicagoland area. The highest snowfall ever recorded at O'Hare Intl. Airport was in 1978 with 35.3".
Most of the Midwestern states are seeing precipitation values well below their normal levels. On average the whole Midwest is about 2" below the average precipitation amounts this is including snowfall for the winter season. The above map shows the probability for above or below average precipitation in the U.S.; most of the Great Plains is set to have below average precipitation values through next week. It seems that this December is going to be very similar to last years where Chicago saw 1.7" of snowfall for the month.
The first three days of the official meteorological winter saw temperatures way above normal. Yesterday on December 3, temperatures for the Midwest region were in the upper 60s to lower 70s!! Most of the Midwest saw temperatures pass the daily normal by more than 10 degrees. Rockford, IL had a maximum temperature of 69 degrees at 1:44 PM yesterday; this breaks the record of 65 degrees set back in 1970! Columbia, MO also saw their maximum temperature surpass the record; the high for Columbia was 75 degrees yesterday which breaks the record of 72 degrees set back in 1998. Chicago Ohare airport almost tied their record maximum temperature yesterday by having a maximum temperature at 70 degrees with the record still at 71 degrees from 1970. This has been one of the warmest starts to the winter season in over ten years; with temperatures staying in the upper 60s for three consecutive days. This pattern does not look to hold up long, as some winter time weather will set in next week.
As the fall season comes to a close, Illinois has a mean temperature of 52.7 degrees, which ranks 25th coldest fall. Total precipitation for the fall season so far is at 5.86", with only three days left it seems that this will be the official total. Looking ahead into the winter season, most of the United States will see temperatures above normal as the upper level atmospheric blocking over the north Pacific has been persistent for the past few weeks. This upper level blocking is contributing to the abnormally high temperatures as well as the lack of any significant storms in the midwest. Looking ahead in the season, we can see that the first third of the season will be lacking any significant snowfall which is due to the north Pacific blocking.
John Barmann
Meteorologist
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Warmest Thanksgiving in 40 years...
Thanksgiving day will be one of the warmest days of the month with high temperatures expected to reach 63 degrees for the Chicagoland area! If the forecast holds out; this Thanksgiving will rank second highest for maximum temperature in the Rockford region. For Chicago region the month of November has seen a mean temperature of 42 degrees. This mean temperature ranks as the 52nd highest mean temp with records taken from National Climate Data Center (NCDC: 1865-2011). Snowfall totals for the state of Illinois is still at 0.0" which is far below the normal snowfall to this date by more than an inch! Although no snow has fallen so far, the season is still young and showing some promise.
We were almost out of the hurricane season with only one storm that hit the United States earlier this year.......and then, Sandy came knocking on the door. Over the past week, Sandy has been given several other names from "Superstorm" to "The Perfect Storm." With just over 100 lives claimed and up to $30 BILLION in damage, this one goes down in the record books.
Facts on Hurricane Sandy:
Storm was 900 miles wide which was roughly twice the size of Texas
The lowest barometric reading ever recorded for an Atlantic storm north of Cape Hatteras NC
The storm surge in New York City was 13.88 breaking the old record from 1960 at 10.02 feet
At least 8 million people without power. The biggest loss of electricity at one time
Photo Courtesy of Andrew Burton. Damage in New York City.
Jessica Hill/Associated Press. Damage from Brant Beach, NJ
A strong cut off low pressure system developed across the Central Plains on Saturday 10/13 and moved into the Upper Midwest on Sunday 10/14. Due to sufficent wind shear, moisture, and a lifting mechanism, this was a good enough setup for severe thunderstorms. The images below show convection beginning around 2pm and blasting through the Chicagoland area over the next couple of hours. Brief heavy downpours and gusty winds were the main issues with this event. The highest wind gust of 65 mph was reported in Peotone, IL.
A TORNADO Warning was issued across northern Cook County and a possible brief touchdown occurred in Schaumburg. Several trees were uprooted and a few roofs were damaged. The National Weather Service is conducting a survey today and an answer will likely be given later today.
Another strong system is forecasted on Wednesday with a few more strong storms possible. This is very typcial during the spring and fall seasons. When seasons make their transition from summer to winter or vice versa, low pressure systems become stronger to due the enhanced jet sreams across the U.S.
Labor Day has passed and summer is nearing an end. Typically around this time of year, forecasts and prognosticators begin to come out and predict what the upcoming winter season will bring and these questions begin to get asked:
How much snow will I get this year?
El Nino or La Nina season?
When is the 1st snowfall going to arrive?
Below is the outlook for the upcoming 2013 winter season. The basic highlights are.....snowy & cold across the Great Lakes region and East Coast, but drier and warmer than average across the Western U.S. and Central Plains. There of course is always an uncertainty especially with how last year's winter season panned out. The jet stream is crucial depending where it sets up, and this year we are expecting a "weak El Nino"which usually favors the East Coast as well as Great Lakes region with average to slightly above average snowfall amounts.
As you saw in my earlier post, I see much of the U.S. seeing average snowfall amounts this coming year with my area (Chicago) seeing their average amount of 35.0" to 40.0" of snow.
While Isaac slowly moves northward, it leaves a swath of heavy rainfall totals and flooding damage across parts of Lousiana. New Orleans broke their 24 hour rainfall total record going from 4.96" to 7.86". Several locations received over 10" of rain while some even saw upwards of 20"!
As Issac moves across Arkansas and Missouri over the next 24 hours, significant rains of 3.00" to 6.00" will be seen in these drought stricken areas. This, however, is much needed considering how dry the summer has been.
This past Saturday, the Chicagoland area experienced another wind event with gusts of 70-80 MPH. This now marks the 3rd time that we have had a wind event where speeds were in excess of 58 MPH, and usually there is either none or only 1 event a year. This line of stroms developed across central IA during the early morning hours and quickly moved eastward. Historically, northern Illinois experiences strong wind events from mid July through mid August because of northwest flow from the jet stream.
Radar Recap From 11AM-6PM
*Courtesy of the National Weather Service
The picutre below just shows how serious these wind events can be.
Silo Damage Between Yorkville & Morris IL on Route 47
We have now completed 2/3 of our meteorological summer, and the obvious headline for this season has been "heat, heat, and more heat." So, besides the dry conditions being forecasted for the month of August, how will this effect the fall/winter of 2012-2013? Based on the latest trends and the Pacific waters starting to show signs of warming temperatures, we are heading for a weak El Niño season. During the fall/winter seasons of an El Niño year, warmer temperatures are typically seen across much of the Northern Plains, however, precipitation is usually at or above average values. Much of the East Coast sees snowier conditions, while the southern U.S. remains wet and cooler than normal.
For the Great Lakes region, we are looking at an average snowfall year. FYI, Chicago's average is 38.6".
Is this forecast set in stone? No, but based on historical data from the past 100 years when El Niño first began, this is how the setup pans out 9 out of 10 times. Numbers don't lie, and history clearly shows this support.
As we approach the "hottest time" of the year across the U.S., another burst of extreme heat will anchor itself across the Midwest with high temperatures once again pushing the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Heat index values will easily reach the 105-110 degree mark. For those of you who are begging for rain, we have another serious stat to include. The drought conditions continue to get worse with another 10-15 days of minimal precipitation expected. Take a look at the image below.......this map shows how much precipitaiton is needed across different parts of the country just to return to the AVERAGE value.
Our previous posts have discussed the current drought status and how we continue to drive down a road that seems to be endless. Much of the Great Lakes region would need anywhere from 6-10" of precipitation just to get back to "average" values. The main cause for this oppressive heat and lack of rainfall is due to a jet stream that won't budge across southern Canada. The majority of low pressure systems are remaining well to the north across the Dakotas and Minnesota. The Duluth floods back in June were caused by the position of this current flow.
There does appear to be some relief about 10-15 days out, but typically, computer data has a way of over analyzing precipitation amounts in drought conditions.
From July 2nd through July 7th, an
impressive heat dome set up across much of the Midwest as a strong high
pressure system and southwest winds brought extreme heat and humidity into northern
IL and IN.Record high temperatures were
seen across several towns/cities across the Central United States.During this week long stretch, temperatures
ranged from 95-105 degrees, and heat index values approached a very
uncomfortable 110-115 degrees.The
hottest days were from Wednesday July 4th through Friday July 6th.
Chicago Record Highs Broken & Tied
·A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 102 DEGREES WAS TIED AT CHICAGO-OHARE
IL ON JULY 4TH. THIS TIED THE OLD RECORD OF 102 SET IN 1911.
·A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES WAS SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE
IL ON JULY 5TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 102 SET IN 1911.
·A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES WAS SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE
IL ON JULY 6TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1988
Much of the Midwest will once again see the return of 90 degree temperatures as a strong ridging pattern will take shape. Wednesday through the weekend we will see temps at or above 90 degrees, with Thursday bringing 100 degree temps! Tropical Storm Debby will cut off our moisture across the Central/Northern Plains and keep the showers/t-storms across the southeast. Most areas in that region are looking at 2-6" of rainfall.
The biggest worry across nearly half of the United States is the drought that has been ongoing for much of this spring and now summer season. Looking at the map below, many areas are in a moderate to severe drought. With another heat wave coming at the Midwest, this map will likely change for the worst once again by the end of the week.
*This is courtesy of U.S. Drought Monitor.
Looking at the next few weeks, computer data continues to show no significant rains for areas across much of the country.
That's the question many of us are asking.......when will it rain again? This is the 2nd driest start to the month of June with only 0.01" of rain falling at O'Hare. The #1 rank belongs to the year 1988 where no rainfall was recorded up to this date in June. With the next 7-10 days looking to remain dry, the concerns begin to grow for fire conditions. Relative humidity values will drop to around 25% by the end of this week which will only increase the chances for Red Flag Warnings.
Below is a picture of the drought map across the U.S:
While the majority of the Midwest is in the abnormally dry slot, the worst is still across the southeast where an extreme drought is taking place. With most areas across northern IL running about 2-3" below normal, it is only a matter of time before we move up on the intensity scale. Things always have a way of balancing out, and let's hope it starts soon.
135 tornado reports were logged by the Storm Prediction Center on Saturday and early Sunday morning. Nearly 100 of these tornadoes were seen in Kansas. This amount is more than the standard for an entire month's total.
With 135 tornado reports, one would think many human casualties must have come from this many storms. On the contrary, only five people have been pronounced dead thus far from the outbreak. While that still is five misfortunes, the tally could have been much greater. Tornadoes ripped through populated areas like downtown Wichita, Kansas and severed 75% of the town of Thurman, Iowa, but both recorded zero deaths. How? Enough notice.
Meteorologists are dogged for missing forecasts and supposedly being wrong half the time, but does missing the amount of cloud cover or exact temperature really impact people? Are peoples' lives really at stake? The weather models were hinting at severe storms almost a week and a half in advance and continued that pattern until that Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center put out a severe weather outlook an entire week in advance.
Every day until that outbreak, they mentioned what the models were showing and at three days out, they warned of the intense severity. By consistently saying that severe storms would break out in the Kansas and Oklahoma area a week in advance from a very well respected group of meteorologists, people got the picture. Action plans were put in place days ahead. Evacuation arrangements were made in case these dreaded tornadoes hit close. Warnings were made and people listened.
With the numerous tornadoes that traveled through populated areas last year, it is hard to think that it would not have happened again this year. Unfortunately, tornadoes were targeted near the Dallas area today.
The video above was recorded by a local television station's helicopter. It is showing a tornado south of Dallas ripping apart tractor trailers. It is uncertain, at this time, if anyone was hurt from this storm or the other tornadoes that formed near Dallas.
As a meteorologist, I like to diagnosis the atmospheric setup to figure out how these tornadoes formed. So this is what I found:
A strong upper level low pressure system is currently positioned in northeast New Mexico. While this system helped to form storms in Texas, it is also providing upwards of a foot of snow to Colorado. You can see as it tries to move eastward in this water vapor imagery loop.
As it makes its way eastward, it is producing storms to the Texarkana area (Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana). This upper level low is actually being steered by the oncoming system that is moving into the Pacific Northwest. This can be seen in the image below.
Not only does this upper level system play a big factor in producing these storms, but so did the storms that moved through last night. After the storms moved from northwest Texas yesterday, they left behind a moist boundary layer. Also, sufficient outflow boundaries were left from the storms. Moving on to today, clouds were able to break enough this morning so that the sun could heat up and destabilize the atmosphere. Modest CAPE(Convective Available Potential Energy) of upwards of 3000 J/Kg was in place by early afternoon. And to add to all of the other severe weather ingredients in place, a trailing cold front moved through Texas initiating storms ahead of it. Combining the preexisting outflow boundaries and the trailing cold front, wind shear(change of wind speed or direction with height) was able to increase the already sufficient low level shear in place.
More than enough severe weather ingredients were in place today to form these storms. However, it is unfortunate that these tornadoes went through such populated areas.
Can you imagine what it would be like to experience this? These solar twisters were seen by NASA. These "tornadoes" were caught on NASA's high definition video when recording the sun.
"The sun tornado video shows swirling fountains of plasma creeping across the sun during a 30-hour period between Feb. 7 and 8. But unlike tornadoes on Earth, which are wind-driven phenomena, the sun's plasma tornadoes are shaped by the powerful magnetic field of our [sun]" (Space.com).
With fog prevalent for the past couple of mornings in northern Illinois, I thought it was only appropriate to show that you are not alone.
The view above is along Panama City Beach, Florida. Yes, even the luxurious beaches in the United States gets fog too. It is actually quite a special circumstance that this fog is occurring. What is happening is that Panama City Beach is experiencing very fluid onshore flow off of the Gulf of Mexico. When this happens, the flow of the air moves towards these high rise buildings and the pressure drops. This, in turn, results in condensation which is seen as fog. The air continues to be pushed up and over the buildings. Then, just like it started, returns near the ground.
If you recall, Wednesday had nothing but sunny skies and mid
50° weather. But like the saying goes, “All good things must come to an end.”
For most of us, we were ecstatic to finally get some measurable snow. The setup
was quite different, in that we banked off another storm for moisture. The low
pressure system that moved up along the East Coast provided sufficient moisture
from the Alberta Clipper system that we received. With our forecast of four to
eight inches, it seemed almost probable that most locations would get the high
end amount from this storm. It was all day Wednesday that we watched as the weather
system from Canada slowly moved through the upper Midwest. By early morning
Thursday, this system entered Illinois. It was not until around 7 AM that snow
reached the western suburbs of Chicago.
Snow continued throughout the entirety of the day into the overnight
hours. And after almost 11 months, it was nice to finally drop the blade.
