Expectations for Today

Although this may look cool, this upper level low pressure system was the root behind many complaints over this past week. With its inability to move, the Great Lakes Region has experienced persistent rain and cooler temperatures that it has not seen in awhile. As it sat and swirled over Lake Michigan, not only was the Great Lakes Region experiencing the repercussions of this stubborn system but so did the rest of the eastern half of the United States. As it continues to push off eastward, this system looks to bring severe weather to the Ohio Valley this afternoon.

Just when we think we are in for some relief from the rain and cooler temps, another system is to sweep through again this afternoon. While this one will not stay around for a week, it will bring a chance for some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Temperature changes are not too significant behind this front, but windy conditions are expected with its passing. Wind gusts of up to 50 miles per hour are expected in northern Illinois this afternoon and into early tomorrow morning.

Speaking of windy conditions...

The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for the area shaded in purple. Specifically in northern Illinois, the wind advisory is in effect from 2 PM today until 5 AM tomorrow morning. The National Weather Service's criteria for a wind advisory is winds of 35 miles per hour are to be expected.


~Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

And She's Back!

What once was a tropical storm, Ophelia has regained enough strength to become a tropical depression. After organizing to be a tropical storm last Tuesday, Ophelia's lifespan was not one for the books. It was last weekend that she showed signs of weakening and eventually could not meet the criteria to maintain her name. But as several days passed, the remnants of Ophelia showed that it was not dying without a fight.

Ophelia is currently located about 200 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Her maximum sustained winds are 50 miles per hour. She continues to move to the north-northwest at about 3 miles per hour.

This is the track that the weather models are predicting. She looks to continue strengthening to a category 1 hurricane by Saturday morning.

~Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

Groundhog Day?

Well, if you live in northern Illinois, I imagine you woke up to rain this morning... and yesterday morning... and  the day before that... and even the day before that. Unfortunately, tomorrow looks to be the same.

Water Vapor Imagery From Last Night

This upper level low pressure system continues to spiral over the Great Lakes region and is bringing rain to the eastern half of the United States. For our area, showers will continue to be on and off until tomorrow night. The Rockford Airport received almost four and a half inches of rain from this system thus far. 

Enhanced Water Vapor Imagery

As another system builds from our west and northwest, it should give enough push to get this stubborn upper level low to move from our area. A brief warm up looks to come Thursday, but just as quick as it comes in, it is just as quick to leave. A cold front will move through the Midwest and give us chances for showers again Friday. Talk of lows into the upper 30s is starting to arise for Friday night and even the chance for frost.

The start of Fall is coming in with a bang. By late next week, cooler temperatures and rain showers should not be a stranger. So, get out those light jackets and warm up the chili, because Fall has officially fell.

~Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

Waterspouts!

WISN 

(Waterspout from Saturday)

If you recall from the last blog post, I wrote, "chances for waterspouts off the shore is not out of the question."  Well certainly as this picture shows, waterspouts formed over Lake Michigan on Saturday. From Milwaukee down to Chicago, many sightings of waterspouts were recorded from early morning until late afternoon.

NOAA

What is a waterspout? Is it a tornado? Is it the start of a hurricane? The common belief that waterspouts are just tornadoes over water is only somewhat true. Depending on how they form, waterspouts come in two different types; tornadic and fair weather.


Tornadic waterspouts have the same characteristics of a tornado that takes place over land. Severe thunderstorms create these type of waterspouts and are usually accompanied with large hail, lightning, and strong winds. These waterspouts can form over the water with the associated thunderstorm or move from land to water.


Fair weather waterspouts occur in none other than, 'fair weather'. They form in light wind conditions. Because the wind is so light, they rarely move over a large area. Climatology shows that these tend to form from late spring to early fall and occur in the early morning to late afternoon hours. 


So just how rare are waterspouts in Chicago? According to the National Weather Service in Romeoville(NWS Romeoville), only 13 waterspouts have been recorded across the Chicagoland coastal waters.

Here is a link of a great video taken of a waterspout just off the Milwaukee Shore:
Waterspouts form over Lake Michigan just off Milwaukee shore

Picture Link

And as safety is always a concern with severe weather phenomenon, the National Weather Service has written a couple things about waterspout safety:


Waterspout Safety

• Listen for special marine warnings about waterspout sightings that are broadcast on NOAA Weather Radio.
• Watch the sky for certain types of clouds. In the summer, with light winds, look for a possible waterspout underneath a line of cumulus clouds with dark, flat bases. Anytime of the year, a thunderstorm or line of thunderstorms, can produce very intense waterspouts.
• If a waterspout is sighted, immediately head at a 90 degree angle from the apparent motion of the waterspout.
• Never try to navigate through a waterspout. Although waterspouts are usually weaker than tornadoes, they can still produce significant damage to you and your boat.

~Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

Happy Fall!

While meteorological fall began September 1st, this morning at 4:04 AM (Central) the autumnal equinox occurred. What better way to kick off Fall than with decreasing temperatures and rain chances!

Clouds will blanket our skies this weekend which will hinder our chances to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s that we have been feeling this week. Temperatures in northern Illinois will only top out in the upper 50s to low 60s.

This is a picture of upper level weather data. As you can see, the upper level low pressure system is centered over northern Illinois and eastern Wisconsin. With regular systems, this low would continue to push off eastward and make its way out within a few days. But fortunately for the rain lovers, this system will slowly move eastward and then retrograde throughout the weekend. Its movement will basically wobble back and forth until the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. This teeter-totter movement will continue to bring showers for our area. Not only will this system give us rain, but it will bring in some cooler temperatures as well.

Current radar shows lake effect showers moving southeast into Indiana. What will be interesting to watch over the weekend will be what develops over the lake. There is enough ingredients for lake effect showers to form all weekend and chances for waterspouts off the shore is not out of the question.



Without further-ado, here is your forecast for this weekend for the Chicagoland area.

-Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

The 2005 Hurricane Season

NOAA Visualizations

The Year of 2005 was quite the year for hurricanes. It is recorded as the most active Atlantic hurricane season in history. 28 tropical and subtropical storms formed. 15 of those storms reached hurricane strength. This season's impact estimated almost 4,000 deaths and recorded just under $160 billion. While these numbers are astounding, Hurricane Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma are to blame for most of the destruction.

National Hurricane Center

These are the tracks of the storms that occurred in 2005. If you notice the dates of these storms, the season started as early as June and did not end until January of 2006!

NOAA

Many of you remember the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, but it was actually Hurricane Wilma that was recorded as the strongest not only for the 2005 hurricane season, but in all of history as well. Hurricane Wilma recorded a low pressure of 882 millibars, and the highest winds topped out at 185 miles per hour. The picture above shows Wilma's track originating in the Caribbean Sea and dying in the North Atlantic Ocean.

National Hurricane Center 

(Hurricane Rita's Storm Track)

NOAA

(Hurricane Rita)

Now, you are probably wondering why am I telling you about the 2005 hurricane season, but it was six years ago today that Hurricane Rita reached category-5 strength. It was the first time in history that two hurricanes in one season reached category-5 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico. Rita also had the fourth lowest central pressure recorded in the Atlantic basin. Although she weakened before it made landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border, Rita produced devastating storm surge that reached as far as the Florida Keys.

NOAA

(Hurricane Rita)

Quick fun fact: 2005 was the last year to use the same set of names as our current hurricane season. Are we in for another strong season?



-Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

New Named Tropical Storm

Meet Ophelia. No, not the potential wife of Prince Hamlet as played in Shakespeare, but Tropical Storm Ophelia. The National Hurricane Center has been tracking this low pressure center for the past week, but it was not until yesterday that these showers became organized enough to categorize it as a tropical storm. She is centered about 150 miles south-southeast of Puerto Escondido, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are only at 45 miles per hour. She will continue to move west today at 13 miles per hour and then her track should start to move west-northwest.

As this picture shows, weather models are suggesting that she will stay at tropical storm strength until 2 AM Monday when she is to reach Puerto Rico.

If you look to Ophelia's west, right around the Leeward Islands, you will see another potential tropical storm in the making. When looking over visible satellite yesterday, showers were looking very disorganized. This small area of low pressure is moving west at 15 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center is not expecting development of this storm within the next 48 hours.

The next name in line for tropical storms is Philippe and he will be the 16th named storm for this year. Any guesses on how many named storms we will have for this year? Bids can be made below in the comment section. :-)

 And for those of you placing bids, just a quick FYI; La Nina usually produces 14 to 19 named storms.


-Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

"It's Like I'm Driving in a Cloud..."

Was this what it looked like for your drive in this morning? If so, you are not alone. A dense fog advisory is in effect until 10 AM this morning. The counties included in this advisory are Dekalb, Kane, DuPage, Cook, La Salle, Kendall, Grundy, Will, Kankakee, Livingston, Iroquois, Ford, Porter, Newton, Jasper, Benton, and Lake County, IN. A Dense Fog Advisory means that visibility will be reduced to less than one quarter mile.

In this visible satellite image, you can see the low lying fog in northeast IL and into Indiana.

National Geographic

Quick Notes About Fog:

• The scientific definition of fog is a suspension of fine water droplets(that do not fall to the ground) that greatly reduces visibility. A simpler definition of fog is a low lying cloud(stratus).
• Criteria for fog: Clear skies at night, moist ground, light winds, suppressed daytime heating, dewpoint depressions 20°F or less, and/or pollution.
• There are different kinds of fog: Radiation, frontal, advection, sea, and ice fog.

-Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

A Taste of Fall

Cold Canadian air was ushered through the Chicagoland area on Wednesday. A low of 42° was recorded at the O'Hare Airport, which is only two degrees shy of the record set in 1985. Not only did this strong cold front affect IL, but it pushed southeastward throughout Wednesday and continues to move into the southeast  states.

This picture shows the 24 hour temperature change from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM today. Not much change was recorded in Illinois, but from West Virginia downward through Texas experienced temperature drops in the 20 degree range. 

While temperatures in Chicago will struggle to reach 60° today, states like Texas and Oklahoma will finally get a relief from the heat that they have been experiencing all summer long.

-Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

Second Warmest Summer on Record

From March through April, Florida, South Carolina, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas have all experienced their warmest temperatures on record. And more specifically, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana have all recorded their warmed August on record.

But just where does this summer stand on record? Believe it or not, this summer has marked the second warmest on record according to NOAA.

As seen on the map, Texas holds the lead for the hottest state from June through August. Dallas just hit the 100-degree mark for the 70th day this year.


Other notable Texas cities that hit the 100-degree mark and their count of days(as of today):
Wichita Falls: 100 days
San Angelo: 96 days
Waco: 85 days
Del Rio: 82 days




-Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

Busy September for the Atlantic

September has continued to be a busy month in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.   There have already been 3 named storms this month (Katia, Nate, Maria).  Katia stayed well off the U.S. coast, while Nate did impact parts of eastern Mexico.  Maria is now the storm to watch, but her track is nearly identical to Hurricane Katia and does not pose any threat to the U.S. coastline.

MARIA
- Maria's current location is 800 miles south of Bermuda.
- The maximum sustained winds are 60 mph and she is moving northwest at 9 mph.
- Tropical storm warnings are currently posted across the Bahamas.
- Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches
   over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.























Eric Szos   
Chief Meteorologist