Track Confusion for Possible Gulf Formation

According to last nights data, the weather models are not correlating on the path of the possible tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Both are hinting that a tropical storm will form off the Louisiana coast on Friday, but what they are not certain of is just where this storm will track.

Here are pictures of the differences in what the weather models are showing for 7 AM on Saturday:

GFS

NAM

As you can see, the NAM model shows more of a defined formation than the GFS. The NAM is suggesting that this storm will stay coastal and move north into Louisiana. The GFS is showing that it will move northeast and track into the eastern states.

Here is what the GFS is showing for its track into the eastern states:

 Sunday 1 PM

Monday 7 AM

Monday 1 PM

Tuesday 1 PM

Now, this is just what one model is showing. Keep in mind that these models cannot come together on a definite track for this possible tropical storm, so we will just have to wait and see how Friday pans out. If this storm forms as the NAM is showing, I will be sure to give you live updates from New Orleans.

-Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

Hurricane Katia

H... I... J... K! We are already on the letter K for hurricane storm names this season. Pronounced KAH-tyah, is gradually strengthening as she moves west-northwest. She is currently 950 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.

She is moving at 21 miles per hour and her maximum sustained winds are about 65 miles per hour.

By Monday, Hurricane Katia is expected to be at a category 3 strength and just northeast of Puerto Rico.


-Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann

Irene Continues to Threaten the East Coast

NOAAVisualizations

With sustained winds peaking at 115 miles per hour, Hurricane Irene shows no signs of stopping. Seen in the time-lapse video, she continues to make her way towards the southeast coast. The warm 85° water will help to provide more energy to this storm. As she continues to intensify, signs show that a second eye wall is beginning form. A second eye wall within a hurricane is characteristic of very intense hurricanes.

The National Hurricane Center predicts Irene to intensify to a Category 4 storm within the next 48 hours. She is centered about 65 miles from Nassau and 670 miles from Cape Hatteras, NC. She is expected to reach Cape Hatteras by early morning Saturday.

GOES Visible Satellite

-Meteorologist Heather Brinkmann